"Nobody has gotten all four prizes before"

[CrusaderDeleters]

http://i.imgur.com/u4AsUin.png
Guess I'm Nobody.
Is it really supposed to be almost impossible to get all four, or is it quite common?

[Hipshot]

That is not common at all. The chance is like, well... if you get 18 or more out of the 24... If we have a math genius around here....

[MadMan]

HOw does it work? Is it conditional probability? Where if you get one, two is less likeley?

[Hipshot]

It should be like you do 24 coin tosses and you should get 18 or more heads.

[Ykanns]

Yeah, you're nobody, his mother does not give you hugs, man ... :\

[MadMan]

Weird, i managed to get 1/64 for it.

[MadMan]

18/24 - 24/24 = 6/24 = 0.25 x 0.25 x 0.25 = 0.015626 = 1/64 to get 18 or more

[Hipshot]

Haha, our calculation is probably _not_ correct, but 1/64 sounds way to high.

[CrusaderDeleters]

I leave for an hour and you guys fill the page. And you can't even see what I posted on the Bug Forums?
I'll see if I remember how to calculate chances for getting all four. Brb.

Edit 1: So I did the calculations, and, well, .00000381469 is like, nowhere near right.
Edit 2: My second calculations is giving me 1/4096, ~ .00024

Edit 3: And here is why none of us got it. Repetitive Combinations' a pain in the arse.
http://i.imgur.com/ctvZMT9.png That's the chance of getting 18/24 head flips.
Now, we can go ahead and try to figure out the chance, but I feel it is better to say that I have about a 1% chance in order to get one of these things.

Let's put this practically: There's 5 in one game (1 in Act 1, 2 in Act 2, 0 in Act 3, and 2 in Act 4 (the other one actually leads to Act 1)). The chance of getting it is 5/125, which is actually 1/25. So you still have a 4% chance to do it. You'll have to play about 25 games and visit EVERY SINGLE ONE in order to get this once. Maybe. Maybe you'll never get it, or maybe you will get it on your first try.

[Ramond]

I actually got all 4 in the final act, was surprised to see it happen

As a Maths student I guess I could try to crank up my rusty probability and statistical skills.

So, the chance to get AT LEAST 18 out of 24 heads...

Means we add the probabilities of getting 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24 heads (this is simple to set up since we just have a 0,5 chance for either heads or tails to happen).
So it looks as follows...


Yeah, about 1% chance sounded about right

[CrusaderDeleters]

-snip-

Yeah, that maths seems about right. I'm very rusty in my math, since they did a "quick session" over probability and left us to learn for ourselves.
Thanks for all the maths, it helps much.

[Retodon8]

Played the game just once so far (not that far in yet), and I also got all 4 prizes.
I thought the comment was about not getting the "good prize" in all 4 spots.

[CrusaderDeleters]

Played the game just once so far (not that far in yet), and I also got all 4 prizes.
I thought the comment was about not getting the "good prize" in all 4 spots.

The bottom level prize (bottom of the puzzle) is always a potion. The second level (the left) is always an ankh. The third level (the right) is always a low-level stat increase (+5%. Correct me if I'm wrong.), and is gray. I'm not sure about the top, but from what I've seen so far, It's always a red chest that yields a red stat upgrade (I'm not sure the stat increase), an Ankh, and a Vendor Coin.

Edit: Found this when looking in the past boards. ^.^ http://hammerwatch.com/forum/index.php?topic=1987.0
Perhaps you COULD add a Red Vendor Coin? Twice as good as the Gold?